As the 2024/25 football season approaches in Europe’s "Big Five" leagues, clubs are preparing intensely for the challenges ahead. Following the conclusion of the main continental national team tournaments such as UEFA EURO 2024 and Copa América, the focus has shifted to the upcoming club season. As part of the major changes, the "Big Five" leagues welcome 14 new clubs, three in each league except for Germany. This article introduces the economic context of these promoted clubs, examining their squad value, social media following, and recent transfer activity.
Who are the new kids on the block?
In the English Premier League, Leicester City FC and Southampton FC have returned to the top flight after just one season of absence. The Foxes, winners of the 2023/24 Championship, boast the most valuable team among the newly promoted clubs as of June 2024 (EUR 197m) and are also the most followed club (approximately 23m followers) on social media. While the Saints secured promotion by defeating Leeds United FC in the playoffs, the 2024/25 English Premier League will be completed by Ipswich Town FC, returning to the first division after 22 years.
In Spain, CD Leganés and Real Valladolid secured direct promotion to the first division, achieving first and second place, respectively. Los Pepineros, controlled by the American group Blue Crow Sports since 2022, return to La Liga after being absent since the 2019/20 season, despite having only the 12th most valuable team in the Spanish Second Division. Meanwhile, Real Valladolid continued their pattern of moving up and down between divisions and RCD Espanyol earned a spot in the 2024/25 La Liga through the playoffs, led by Segunda División’s top scorer Martin Braithwaite.
In Italy, Parma Calcio established themselves as the best team in Serie B, finishing their campaign with relative ease in the automatic promotion spots and benefiting from the investments undertaken by their American owners, the Krause family, over the past few years. The second automatic promotion spot was secured by Como Calcio, whose ambitious Indonesian ownership does not seem to be stopping at promotion to Serie A, as evidenced by their rumoured transfer targets this summer. The playoffs confirmed the regular season rankings, with third-placed Venezia FC gaining promotion to Serie A, led by Finnish striker Joel Pohjanpalo.
The 2024/25 French Ligue 1 will see both AJ Auxerre and Angers SCO returning after only one season of absence, thanks to direct promotion. Meanwhile, the historic club AS Saint-Étienne, recently acquired by the Canadian group Kilmer Sports Ventures, achieved promotion through the playoffs after two seasons of absence.
Lastly, the next season of the German Bundesliga will include two new clubs: FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel. St. Pauli return to the top division for the first time since the 2010/11 season, having won the 2023/24 2. Bundesliga, outperforming more renowned teams such as city rivals Hamburger SV, Hertha BSC and FC Schalke 04. Holstein Kiel will play in the top tier for the first time in their history, making them the only newcomer among the “Big Five” promoted clubs.
Squad market value
As of June 2024, a significant disparity in squad market values is evident among the newly promoted clubs. English clubs occupy three of the top four positions. By comparison, Leicester City FC’s squad value is almost four times that of Parma Calcio, which is third in the ranking, and more than 16 times that of CD Leganés, which is last in this regard.
Grouping the promoted clubs by country, the disparity remains clear. The three English clubs have an average squad market value of EUR 139m, followed distantly by the Italian and Spanish clubs, with average values of EUR 38m and EUR 30m, respectively. The French and German clubs trail further behind, with averages of EUR 25m and EUR 23m, respectively.
Social media followers
Shifting focus to the social media fan base (Facebook, X, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, and Weibo followers combined), Leicester City FC lead again with over 20m followers, largely thanks to their global recognition after winning the 2015/16 Premier League title. The disparity in social media followings is less pronounced than that of squad market values, but English clubs still dominate. They average 10.7m followers, significantly higher than clubs from Spain, who average 5.5m followers, driven mainly by RCD Espanyol's 8.0m followers.
Interestingly, five of the 14 clubs analyzed have fewer than 1 million followers, with Holstein Kiel having the smallest social media fan base at 245,000 followers. The upcoming first division campaign will be key for these clubs to increase their fan base.
Transfer activities before and after promotion
Squad quality is crucial during the race for promotion, especially when the step-up is towards a prominent European top division. Reaching sporting success is a complex task that involves factors such as coaching, team chemistry, tactical alignment, and the integration of youth players. However, the most direct tool to strengthen a squad is through investment in the transfer market. Promoted clubs often use the market to elevate the squad's level immediately, tapping into the increased revenues from first division broadcasting and sponsorship agreements.
To provide context, we first examined transfer activities preceding the promotion, focusing on expenditure and income during the 2023/24 season. Perhaps surprisingly, nine clubs had a positive transfer balance out of the 14 promoted ones, meaning they were able to generate transfer profits while also achieving promotion at the end of the season. Five of the nine clubs realized profits of over EUR 20m, however all of them had one thing in common: a relegation from the first division in the previous season. For these clubs, the focus was on cutting costs and generating significant income from the transfer of players who were in demand by first division clubs.
In absolute terms, Leicester City FC and Southampton FC reinvested the most after relegation. Leicester bought a pair of experienced Premier League players (Harry Winks and Conor Coady), as well as younger profiles, headlined by Tom Cannon and Mads Hermansen. However, their key acquisition was not even a permanent transfer, loaning Issahaku Fatawu from Sporting CP. Southampton FC made only two major acquisitions, but following a similarly balanced logic: Shea Charles arrived from Manchester City’s academy while Ross Stewart brought experience to the squad. Still, The Saints had to fill major gaps after the disposal of Roméo Lavia, Tino Livramento, James Ward-Prowse, Nathan Tella and Mohamed Salisu, reflecting on the on-pitch challenges the team had to solve in a short-term without a significant reinvestment compared to the realized transfer income.
Albeit at a different level, the Spanish duo of Real Valladolid and RCD Espanyol also reinvested some funds. Valladolid signed the trio of Marcos André, Cyle Larin and Enzo Boyomo for fees between EUR 1 and 2m, while Espanyol used most of the budget on one player, Pere Milla from Elche CF. After being placed last in the 2022/23 Ligue 1 season, Angers SCO only spent less than 5% of their transfer income on reinforcements, however they still managed to get promoted after a lone season in the second division.
Only five promoted clubs had a negative transfer balance during the season before promotion, with none surpassing EUR 10m in losses. Como Calcio, Parma Calcio, Ipswich Town FC, and AJ Auxerre did not generate any income from player sales. On average, the three English clubs spent EUR 23.3m, more than four times the average of any other league’s newcomers. The three Italian clubs promoted to Serie A followed with an average spending of EUR 5.2m. No club in the other three leagues spent more than EUR 5m.
Shifting to the current transfer window, once again we find two English clubs at the bottom of the transfer balance rankings. However, this time it’s Ipswich Town FC who invested the most, spending over EUR 60m on the young trio of Omari Hutchinson, Jacob Greaves and Liam Delap. Southampton also targeted up-and-coming players, investing over EUR 50m in Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Flynn Downes and Yukinari Sugawara. While Leicester City FC’s balance at this point is close to zero, it’s not due to a lack of investment in the team: in addition to making the signing of Fatawu permanent, the Foxes spent a further EUR 20m on young prospects Caleb Okoli and Michael Golding.
Outside of the Premier League, Como Calcio have spent the most, reaching a total expenditure of EUR 20m up until 17th July. In stark contrast to the strategy of newly promoted Premier League sides, the club seems to prioritize experience: Andrea Belotti, Alberto Dossena and Gabriel Strefezza all have plenty in the Serie A. However, based on unofficial reports, this is only the beginning of an ambitious project, with the North Italian club reportedly targeting multiple high-profile players, including Raphaël Varane, Pepe Reina, Pau Lopez and Alberto Moreno. Besides Como, Real Valladolid and AS Saint Etienne have been the most active among promoted clubs, with the Spanish club signing six players for fees above EUR 1m. The French side invested in a more condensed way, spending EUR 9m on the duo of Zuriko Davitashvili and Augustine Boakye.
On the other end of the scale, three newly promoted clubs have not spent any money on transfer fees to date: FC St. Pauli, RCD Espanyol and Angers SCO had an uneventful window by this point. Combined with last year’s investment, Angers spent a total of EUR 0.7m since the summer of 2023, with St. Pauli not behind by much considering their EUR 1.1m total outlay.
It is evident based on our overview that expectations vary for this year’s promoted teams. For Holstein Kiel, experiencing first division football will already be a huge success, while others, such as Como Calcio, have more ambitious objectives. Considering recent trends, avoiding relegation would already be a success for the majority of them: over the past five years, 38% of promoted clubs in the “Big Five” have been relegated immediately, while last year, half of them were unable to survive their first season. However, one thing is certain: some of these new challengers will bring lasting storylines and unexpected moments, maybe even surprising the giants of European football.
