Article by Quinn Honeyman | Football Benchmark

As the 2024/25 season nears its conclusion, clubs across Europe face familiar but complex questions around contract renewals and free agency. According to Football Benchmark Intelligence’s Player Valuation platform, more than 280 players (with at least 450 minutes played in all club competitions) across the Big Five European leagues are currently set to become free agents in July 2025.

As explained in previous articles, players approaching the end of their contract are assigned a market value of zero according to our proprietary algorithm — reflecting the fact that they would not generate any transfer income for their current club if they leave upon expiry.

Still, this valuation does not tell the full story. For each of these players, Football Benchmark Intelligence also provides a hypothetical market value — an estimate of what their worth would be if they were to extend their current contract. This dual valuation allows clubs to navigate the fine line between financial loss and strategic foresight. Free agency, in this context, is not merely a risk to be avoided, but a decision-making moment — a lens through which to evaluate squad planning, wage efficiency, and succession.

Valuation Dynamics Across Leagues

The distribution of free agents varies significantly across the top European leagues, both in volume and value. While the vast majority of players nearing contract expiry are valued below €10 million in case of renewal, a select few — just 29 across the five leagues — carry potential valuations in excess of that figure.

The Premier League stands out with the highest concentration of high-value potential free agents. Despite a relatively modest total of 58 players facing contract expiry, the English topflight features 15 players who would surpass the €10 million threshold if renewed. This is consistent with the broader market reality, as Premier League clubs possess the most valuable squads across Europe, benefiting from superior financial resources and wage structures. 

Among Premier League clubs, Liverpool presents a particularly illustrative case. Three of Liverpool’s most emblematic figures — Trent Alexander-Arnold, Mohamed Salah, and Virgil van Dijk — are nearing the end of their current deals. Together, their estimated renewal value stands at over €150 million, underlining their continued influence and market stature. Yet their situations also reflect a broader reality for Liverpool: a squad approaching a natural point of transition. With several core players moving past their peak years, the club faces the strategic challenge of determining whether to reinvest in familiar pillars or to accelerate a generational shift.

By contrast, Lille in Ligue 1 offers a mirror image of this scenario. The French club has punched above its weight, not only domestically but also in European competition. Players like Jonathan David and Angel Gomes have played central roles in this overperformance and, assuming their contracts would not be extended, they would depart without generating any transfer income. For a club like Lille, where talent identification and resale value are critical components of the business model, such a scenario would represent not just sporting loss, but a major financial opportunity missed. Unlike Liverpool, where the decision to renew is shaped by long-term squad evolution, Lille's risk lies in the difficulty of replacing key talent without the financial cushion of a transfer fee.
 

The Age Curve: Valuation Through Lifecycle

Another key layer to understanding the free-agent market is age, a factor adding complexity to how clubs assess renewal strategies. Most expiring contracts unsurprisingly belong to players in the 30-32 (73 players) and 33–35 (75) age brackets, where performance may still be strong, but extending their contract carries a higher risk-reward trade-off. On the other end of the spectrum, a young player nearing contract expiry is not only a valuable asset in terms of current contribution, but also from a potential resale standpoint.

La Liga: Stability at the Top

Unlike the Premier League, La Liga shows a much lower concentration of high value expiring contracts. Of the 67 players set to become free agents, only Atlético Madrid’s Reinildo Mandava exceeds the €10 million valuation mark in the case of a hypothetical renewal. This reflects a broader structural trend: both Real Madrid and FC Barcelona — the league’s most valuable squads — have recently undergone significant regeneration. Real Madrid has been proactive in building around younger talents, while Barcelona has also promoted a new generation of players to ease its financial and sporting transition. This explains why La Liga shows the lowest average hypothetical market value for potential free agents among the Big Five leagues.
 

Efficient Planning and Hidden Value

The Bundesliga, with only 35 players nearing the end of their contracts, demonstrates one of the most efficient approaches to contract management among Europe’s top leagues. Despite its smaller pool, the league boasts the second-highest average hypothetical value for potential free agents — suggesting that while fewer in number, several players could represent high-value opportunities for acquisition or retention.

Serie A, by contrast, leads all leagues with 69 players set to become free agents. While the overall average market value is more modest, this volume reflects a market ripe for opportunistic moves — particularly for clubs seeking experienced professionals or short-term squad depth without major transfer fees.

A Defining Summer Ahead

The 2025 summer transfer window will present clubs with a series of difficult, high-stakes decisions. Contract expiries force teams to weigh the cost of renewal against the risk of losing talent for nothing — all while balancing immediate needs with long-term priorities. This is particularly relevant for clubs undergoing a period of transition, as well as for overperformers who may struggle to replace key contributors without the financial cushion of a transfer fee.
In these moments, relying solely on past performance can be misleading. The challenge lies in projecting future contribution — assessing not only a player’s current value to the squad, but also their likely impact over the course of a renewed contract.

Handled thoughtfully, free agency offers more than just a defensive exercise in damage control. It can become a tool for recalibrating squad structure, rebalancing wages, and opening space for emerging talent. How clubs approach these decisions in the months ahead may quietly shape the trajectory of their next competitive cycle.